From: Josef 'Jupp' Schugt <jupp@...>
Date: 2003-04-14T07:27:09+09:00
Subject: [OT] Re: The hundred year language

Saluton!

* Stefan Scholl <stesch@no-spoon.de>; 2003-04-13, 18:15 UTC:
> On 2003-04-11 20:36:32, Damphyr wrote:
>> It tries to describe/predict how a programming language is going
>> to be like in a hundred years.
> 
> Who would have guessed it? It will be Lisp. :-)

( setq
  reasonable-prediction
  nil ; That's my humble opinion
)

( setq
  programming-languages-as-we-know-them-still-exist-in-100-years
  nil ; hopefully :-)
)

Some time ago I read 'Auf zwei Planeten' ('On two planets' probably
known as 'Two planets', the title of the 1971 US edition) by Kurd
Lasswitz, a Science-Fiction story originally published in 1897. It
clearly shows the limitations of extrapolations of technical
development, leave alone scientific breakthroughs - the book contains
violations (not circumventions) of Einstein's theories of relativity.

To put it that way: We have no idea of what computers will look in a
hundred years from now. We do not even know what principles they will
be based upon. They may be

 - optical and use nonlinear effects
 - quantum-mechanical and use probability effects
 - biological and will be able to make mistakes and have a mind of
   their own
 - will be something like syntrons (*)
 - not exist (because mankind ceased to exist or decided not to use
   computers any more)
 - will be based on something we don't imagine today

One should keep in mind that the principle that allow for modern
computers are not very old.

Konrad Zuses first computer was 100% mechanical. He then switched to
relays (electro-mechanics) and afterwards to tubes (electronics). The
reason why he did switch has always been the same: The principle used
did limit the power provided by the computer. A computer based on
tubes did impose many limitations on its usability. As long as
computers were based on tubes that did inevitabely mean that there
had to be a large computing center. Computers for everybody simply
were unthinkable. Then came the invention of the transistor. A
completely new techonology did start. Even the very first transistor
built in laboratory was of a size that is hard to reach by tubes.
Nowadays we are beginning to reach the limits of that technology but
who can imagine what will be in 100 years?

(*) A syntron is a fictional computing device that does occur in the
Perry Rhodan Science-Fiction series. Facing the limits of computing
technology the authors did come up with the idea that the major
limitations of todays computers are Planck's quantum and the speed of
light that are fundamental constants of our universe. They therefore
did put the computer into an universe of it's own - with different
fundamental constant. Who can say if we will not be able to do that
in reality? We nowadays do things that people a hundred years ago
would have supposed to be wonders (and others that they would have
called attacks but now are called 'preventive actions').

Besides technical limitations programming languages also depend on
our intellctual approach to problems. Nowadays we think in terms of
limited things and their properties. That is only one approach.
Another one would be seeing the world as an entity and describing how
that entity evolves.

That is not as artificial as it may seem. Such a change of approach
did take place in physics. Quantum mechanics brought us a picture of
the world that has little in common with the old mechanical approach.

Gis,

Josef 'Jupp' Schugt       http://jupp.tux.nu       jupp(AT)gmx(DOT)de