From: Peter Hickman <peter@...>
Date: 2003-08-21T01:06:17+09:00
Subject: Re: the mindshare of Ruby (was)

Brandon J. Van Every wrote:
> COBOL is dead because no sane programmer uses it for new applications or
> systems development.  It is entirely a legacy operation.  Language
> technology and productivity has advanced far, far beyond what COBOL is
> capable of.

COBOL is still used, there are new applications being developed by various 
corporations (I was a COBOL programmer).

> Smalltalk is dead not because its paradigms are outmoded, but because other
> languages have offered similar things and have improved generally upon it.
> The mindshare has moved on.  No sane programmer uses it for new applications
> or systems development.  Smalltalk is a has-been language.

Outmoded? What nonesense is this? The mainstream languages have yet to catch 
up with some of the features offers by Smalltalk (and LISP for that matter).

> C++ is a dying language.  It is too cumbersome in practice, and modern
> computers can afford garbage collection and higher level language
> abstractions.  At Microsoft, C# is supplanting all C++ development.  The
> writing is on the wall: nobody is interested in C++ any more.

The use of C# at Microsoft might perhaps be a political desision? Like the use 
of Java at Sun? If C++ is dying the same way COBOL is dead then my 
grandchildren will probably be programming in it.

> Java and C# are current, mainstream languages.  They get the bulk of
> development.  Now, I know those of you familiar with
> http://www.tiobe.com/tpci.htm might scream, "Hey wait a minute!  I see some
> 47.4 rating for Java, but only 4.1 for C#!  C# isn't mainstream, who are you
> kidding??"  Well, C# has got 100% of Microsoft behind it.  Upcoming
> Microsoft products will be 100% C#.  C# is inexorable.

Sure just like prolog was going to take over the world when Japan (somewhat 
larger than Microsoft) got 100% behind it for their Fifth Generation Project. 
Same goes for all that European money that was poured into prolog. (Yes I was 
a prolog programmer too).

> Python and Ruby are technologically advanced languages with marginal status
> as far as current mainstream usage.  Python is in better shape than Ruby.
> Both have been around for the same period of time.  One has done better at
> mindshare than the other.  One is less in danger of disappearing into
> obscurity than the other.  But of course, the show ain't over yet.
> Probably, they cannot both become relevant to the mainstream, because they
> are too similar.  It's quite possible that neither ever becomes relevant to
> the mainstream.  The marketing of Java and C# is of course a formidable
> obstacle to overcome.

Perl is the COBOL of the 21st century. It will be in active use until someone 
invents a telepathic computer.