From: Phlip <phlip2005@...>
Date: 2009-04-18T14:05:04+09:00
Subject: Re: Goodbye Ruby - Hello Earth

Alexey Petrushin wrote:

> The Singularity will come earlier (~30).

Thirty years? Note that only 40 years ago, futurists predicted we'd have 
flying cars, moonbases, and brain transplants by now...

The S is a staple of science fiction. Confer Vernor Vinge, for example. Its 
projection is not grounded in facts.

The plot of scientific knowledge over time is a simple ramp up, but the plot 
of the corresponding technology follows an S-curve:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function

On the lower left end of that curve, humans are too busy hunting and 
scavenging to bother with advanced research.

We are above the middle these days, where each scientific advance rapidly 
yields a technology boost.

The closer we get to the upper right, the less valuable each scientific 
advance becomes. Eventually, a billion dollars of research will not yield a 
million dollars of profit from new gizmos.

We have already seen this effect in many of our advances. Nuclear power 
works great on paper, but if the only thing we can do with the spent fuel is 
dump it on Iraq or Somalia then those guys might actually achieve the moral 
high ground in the court of global public opinion and shut us down.

Similarly, string theory is an awesome idea, but I have heard that nobody 
can think of an experiment that would prove, adjust, or bust it. The 
experiments themselves create the new technology, but as our microscopes and 
telescopes get smaller and bigger, they will only show us wonders that lead 
to no practical applications.

"This one a long time have I watched. Never his mind on where he was. Hmm? 
What he was doing. Hmph. Adventure. Heh! Excitement. Heh! A Jedi craves not 
these things." --Yoda

-- 
  Phlip