From: Chad Perrin Date: 2009-04-13T09:34:12+09:00 Subject: Re: Goodbye Ruby - Hello Earth --W/nzBZO5zC0uMSeA Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable On Mon, Apr 13, 2009 at 03:53:30AM +0900, David Masover wrote: > On Sunday 12 April 2009 05:50:20 Bill Kelly wrote: > > From: "Chad Perrin" > > > > > I, meanwhile, hope the technological singularity comes because I beli= eve > > > that without it the human race is doomed, >=20 > How so? We didn't need a magical singularity to get this far... If nothing else, there's always the heat death of the universe. Consider less excessive apocalyptic ends may exist as well (the sun expands and all life on Earth is eliminated; a meteor the size of Australia impacts the Earth; an alien race decides to build an interstellar bypass through the solar system; we invent something easier to make and more effective at killing than nuclear bombs; Yellowstone National Park blows up; energy resources get used up and we end up losing 90% of the human race before stabilizing at the level of isolated agrarian collectives, and everyone eventually gets killed off by predators and natural disasters; disease wipes us all out; et cetera. Take your pick. The only question, without significant technological advancement, is whether we survive long enough to die by way of the Big Crunch. >=20 > Certainly, there will be increasingly sophisticated information systems, = which=20 > will help us solve problems more effectively, just as they always have. B= ut I=20 > don't think it's a requirement that they become self-aware. Who said anything about self-aware information systems? A technological singularity need not be the result of Charles Stross' Eschaton being born. In fact, I think that particular idea of how a technological singularity would come to pass is one of the less likely possibilities. The key to a technological singularity seems to be the feedback loop of the multiplicative power of automated computation being used to help design better automated computation systems. That doesn't necessitate automated computation systems achieving independent volition. >=20 > That would just be very cool. It might. >=20 > > > The singularity might also > > > kill us all off, but I'm more interested in trying and dying than in > > > sitting around waiting to die anyway. >=20 > Sure, but I doubt it will happen. We've been predicting artificial intell= igence=20 > for decades, and it really hasn't happened in any meaningful way. 1. Who said anything about "artificial intelligence", per se? It wasn't me. 2. There are several different possible interpretations of the term "artificial intelligence" anyway. >=20 > At the moment, we don't seem to be anywhere near having the computing pow= er to=20 > match a human brain, or sufficient knowledge of neurology to build a simu= lation=20 > if we did. Nor do we seem to be any closer to any alternate model that wo= uld=20 > constitute an artificial intelligence. At current rates of increase, which have been roughly consistent for twenty years or more, we're looking at matching the raw processing power of the human brain some time before 2050 (estimates vary). Theoretical computing models currently in development may actually increase the rate of improvement. >=20 > > I'm trying to imagine sitting down to interact with an operating system > > that's 1000 times smarter than me. >=20 > Nor would it necessarily be smarter than us in the beginning... =2E . . nor would it necessarily *ever* be "smarter" than us. It shouldn't be long now before it's a more efficient processor, though. --=20 Chad Perrin [ original content licensed OWL: http://owl.apotheon.org ] Quoth Olin Shivers: "I object to doing things that computers can do." --W/nzBZO5zC0uMSeA Content-Type: application/pgp-signature Content-Disposition: inline -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v2.0.10 (FreeBSD) iEYEARECAAYFAknih64ACgkQ9mn/Pj01uKWspwCfUV1riEd8oyvX2x9ly2mLX71L O/sAmgNwrmLHmEPqIKYF9Z1j0SAern70 =cD/8 -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- --W/nzBZO5zC0uMSeA--