From: Thomas E Enebo <enebo@...>
Date: 2004-11-05T05:06:58+09:00
Subject: Re: [OT] US Presidential Election

On Fri, 05 Nov 2004, Kujawa, Greg defenestrated me:

> 1) It's all about the oil. - If you add up the cost of the Iraqi War it
> would've been far cheaper to just pay more for any possible OPEC price
> gouging that might have taken place in the future. It's not like we're
> getting oil for free after defeating Saddam are we? And the price of crude
> oil on the American market has other factors involved that are often
> overlooked.

  Well, I do not know if I believe the 'about the oil theory' or not, but
your above point seems to be missing the point of the theory to me.  I 
think the theory is not about how much consumers pay, but about how much
an oil company has to gain from it.    Last I read, oil companies are
making out like bandits.   Invading Iraq has helped their bottom line,
but not joe hay seed.

  Some other things I have heard which are related to (or are extensions
to):

1. Iraq (under Saddam) was changing oil prices to be based off of the 
Euro starting sometime in 2004.   I guess the US has some tactical 
advantage to having oil be based off the dollar (I am  no economist 
so I do not understand the ramifications of this).

2. US controls oil fields of Iraq (less sure how much control the US
has now).  If OPEC does something crazy and cuts back production too
much, then we open the sluice gates in Iraq and drive prices back down.
It gets even better in that just the implicit threat that we can have
Iraq flood the market is enough to keep OPEC in line.  That is assuming
the US (or oil companies) wants low oil prices (see original oil theory 
above).

3. Haliburton has gotten lots of work rebuilding oil fields or Iraq.
I am disinclined to believe this as much since a wholly owned foreign
Haliburton subsidiary was the largest supplier to Saddams Iraq oil fields
than all other oil companies combined (in other words it has been good 
for them regardless of who is in power).

4. We do not get a majority of oil from the middle east, but the middle
east is driving the price of oil.   I believe oil from those places has 
been cheaper.  So this is the gouge the consumer angle.

  The lynch-pin to all this revolves around whether any gains by oil 
companies was intentionally planned by the current administration.  If
you think so, then you would likely be pissed about it.  

-Tom

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