From: Jan <jan@...>
Date: 2004-11-03T00:18:49+09:00
Subject: Re: [OT] US Presidential Election

Francis Hwang wrote:
> 
> On Nov 2, 2004, at 12:15 AM, pete@petta-tech.com wrote:
> 
>> A couple of things changed my mind:
>>     1.  Osama bin Laden announced in his recent video that he does not 
>> want
>>         you to vote for GWB.  I consider that fairly good proof that
>>         GWB's actions cause problems for bin Laden.
> 
> 
> You know, when you play poker:
> 
> Sometimes you raise because you've got a bad hand and you want the other 
> guy to fold.
> Sometimes you raise because you've got a good hand and you want the 
> other guy to call.
> Sometimes you raise because you've got a bad hand and you want the other 
> guy to think you're trying to make him think you've got a good hand and 
> want him to call.
> Sometimes you raise because you've got a good hand and you want the 
> other guy to think you're trying to make him think you've got a bad hand 
> and want him to fold.
> 
> Anyway, the point is that we know Osama bin Laden is a dishonest player. 
> (Like the best poker players.) Best not to focus too much on the things 
> he says, and more on what he does.
> 

I don't think the goal wasn't really to sway people away from Bush or 
Kerry. I'm guessing it was an attempt to recruit more people for his cause.

I mean, Bush fans will say "look at what he is saying, he doesn't want 
us to vote for Bush, so Bush must be doing something right! I'm voting 
for Bush!".
Kerry fans will say "look at how he is saying it! Clean clothes, no 
wounds, nice office, professional recorded on video, calm voice. Is that 
  a hunted down criminal, close to being captured? Bush concentrated all 
his attention on Iraq that he forgot about Bin Laden! I'm voting Kerry!"

Bin Laden is allot of things, but he is not stupid. If he can convince 
people to get into a plane, and crash themselves in a building, then he 
knows his psychology. He knew that his message would have zero effect on 
the american election, but that it would get maximum media attention if 
it looked like he tried. So why did he record this message? Well an 
answer could be, that he wanted to recruit more potential terrorists.

Think about it, the most dangerous potential terrorist in the US aren't 
the ones in Afghanistan or Iraq. It's the well educated islamitic people 
who already live in the US, that are very dissatisfied with the current 
political course of the US. They have better access to critical 
locations, and a better knowledge of security procedures than someone 
from Afghanistan.
These potential terrorists all saw on their television set, a nicely 
dressed man that was just giving a political speech with seemingly 
normal demands "Get off our land, and we'll leave you alone". This might 
push those potential terrorists to join an actual terrorist organisation 
in their neighbourhood, when they see Bin Laden as a political leader 
instead of a religous nutjob.